China’s Contradictory Climate Strategy: Leading in Green Energy While Remaining World’s Top Polluter

China’s carbon emissions could peak earlier than its 2030 target, with its growing green economy potentially setting an example in energy transition. However, the country’s heavy reliance on coal has placed it as the world’s top greenhouse gas emitter, casting doubt on its role as a climate leader ahead of the upcoming U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) set to begin on November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Despite recent strides in renewable energy, China’s emissions remain staggeringly high. In 2023, the country emitted 12.6 gigatons of greenhouse gases, more than any other nation. Yet, paradoxically, China is also a global leader in clean energy, contributing 60% of recent global growth in solar, wind, and electric vehicle adoption.

China’s mixed track record raises questions about its climate commitment. Fossil fuels make up a vast majority of its energy mix, with coal still occupying a dominant share. In fact, China approved permits for coal plants capable of generating over 100 gigawatts of electricity in both 2022 and 2023—a move analysts say aims to ensure stable grid capacity rather than increase coal dependency. But critics argue that without strict restrictions on coal expansion, these new plants could undermine emissions targets.

The financial interests backing renewable energy projects are growing, and China has cemented itself as the leader in solar and wind power development. According to Global Energy Monitor, China currently has 180 gigawatts of solar and 159 gigawatts of wind energy under construction—nearly double the combined capacity of the rest of the world. However, integrating these massive renewable projects into the national grid remains a daunting challenge.

China’s emissions reductions since early 2023 suggest it could reach its carbon peak sooner than anticipated, driven by rapid advancements in green technology and a waning demand for high-emission construction materials amid an economic slowdown. But the long-term path to net-zero emissions by 2060 is far from assured. Grid modernization, necessary for large-scale renewable integration, has been slow, and without accelerated reforms, China’s reliance on coal may persist longer than projected.

As COP29 approaches, China faces mounting scrutiny for its dual approach to climate policy. While it claims to be setting an example for energy transition, its heavy coal dependency and mixed policy actions reveal the significant gap between its ambitions and current practices. The world will be watching to see if China can shift from climate contradictions to sustained action, aligning its policies with its commitments to a sustainable future.