Doubts Raised on China’s Readiness to Invade Taiwan by 2027

A senior U.S. intelligence official has expressed skepticism regarding China’s ability to execute plans for a potential forceful reunification with Taiwan by its self-imposed deadline.

Despite assertions from various U.S. military and intelligence officials in recent years regarding Beijing’s intentions and military preparations, doubts persist about China’s readiness to carry out a military invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

Dave Frederick, Assistant Deputy Director for China at the U.S. National Security Agency, addressed concerns about China’s ambitious timeline during a security conference in Nashville, Tennessee. While acknowledging China’s focus on achieving its 2027 objectives, Frederick refrained from making predictions, emphasizing the significant obstacles that remain.

Foremost among these challenges is China’s capability to conduct an amphibious landing on Taiwan, a task Frederick described as “a really, really challenging military problem.” He noted China’s efforts to enhance its amphibious capabilities but underscored the difficulty of executing such a maneuver.

Chinese officials, however, downplayed these concerns, asserting that the Taiwan issue is an internal matter for China to resolve. Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, urged the United States to adhere to the one-China principle and refrain from interference in Taiwan-related matters.

This caution regarding China’s military expansion echoes sentiments expressed in the U.S. Defense Department’s annual China Military Power Report, which highlighted Beijing’s recognition of deficits in its military capabilities. Despite China’s aspirations, U.S. intelligence officials believe that President Xi Jinping has not yet made a final decision on the use of military force against Taiwan.

While Beijing continues to apply pressure through various means, including military and economic channels, U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that China may be open to negotiating Taiwan’s unification rather than resorting to armed conflict.

As uncertainties persist, the international community closely monitors developments in the Taiwan Strait, mindful of the delicate balance of power and the implications for regional stability.