The Spectre of the Pahalgam Massacre and Its Implications for Regional Security

The calm Baisaran meadow next to Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir becomes the scene of a terrible terrorist assault on April 22, 2025. At least 28 people died and nearly 20 others were injured when gunmen connected with the Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), opened fire on a party of visitors. This assault stands as one of the deadliest civilian-targeted attacks in the region since the 2019 Pulwama bombing.

The Pahalgam massacre’s heinousness is highlighted by its purposeful targeting of unarmed people, including women and children, who were engaged in leisure activities in a popular tourist area.  Such direct attacks on tourists are extraordinarily unusual in the Kashmir war, representing a substantial diversion from the traditional targets of militant violence, which have involved mainly security officers and political elites.  The previous such incident happened in November 2008, when a terrorist attack by the cadres of LeT caused devastation in Mumbai, killing more than a hundred people, including many foreigners. Executed amid a season of rising tourist numbers and concurrent with the visit of U.S. Vice President JD Vance to India. ​Several terrorist attacks in India have coincided with visits by U.S. officials, raising concerns about the strategic timing of such incidents. On March 20, 2000, 35 Sikh villagers were killed in Chittisinghpura, Jammu and Kashmir, just before U.S. President Bill Clinton visited India. The attack was attributed to Lashkar-e-Taiba, aiming to incite communal tensions and draw international attention. The planned nature of the Pahalgam incident points to a purposeful aim to maximize psychological damage and worldwide attention. “Go tell this to Modi,” the assailants’ claimed remark to a survivor, suggests even more a desire to convey to the Indian government directly.

According to survivors, the attacker demanded that everyone recite Islamic verses; those who couldn’t do so were killed right away. Asavari, one survivor, said that her husband missed reciting a phrase and was shot in the head. By focusing on people based on their religious identification, such acts show a deliberate intent to create fear and community strife.

In the weeks leading up to the attack, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, made provocative statements referring to Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein” and invoking the two-nation theory, emphasizing the distinctiveness of Muslims from Hindus and presented heavy religiously loaded rhetoric on the ‘importance’ of Pakistan comparing it with Medina suggesting the raison d’être of Pakistan is closely related with religion. Indian intelligence agencies have indicated that these remarks may have emboldened militant groups, catalyzing the Pahalgam attack. The timing of the assault, closely following Munir’s statements, raises concerns about the influence of political rhetoric on militant activities.​

The TRF has long been suspected of functioning as a façade to shield the involvement of banned outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba based in Pakistan and has a historical record of orchestrating cross-border attacks, including the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Pakistan has been regularly mentioned by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) for not stopping terror funding and permitting safe havens for banned businesses. Pakistan has been under international criticism for its deceit in counter-terrorism narratives, even if it was removed from the FATF grey list in 2022.

The Pahalgam assault has exacerbated the already fragile ties between India and Pakistan. India’s attribution of responsibility for the assault to Pakistan-based groups, along with the apparent connection to General Munir’s remarks, has heightened diplomatic tensions. Although Pakistan has denied direct participation, the episode highlights the ongoing difficulties in combating cross-border terrorism and the intricacies of the Kashmir conflict and Pakistan’s regular connection with the same.  The attack’s timing, aligning with prominent diplomatic trips, and its focus on civilians have intensified apprehensions over regional stability. This may compel India to intensify military operations in Jammu and Kashmir and neighboring areas, possibly affecting the tourist industry, which has seen significant growth over the last three years.

The Pahalgam incident is anticipated to force a recalibration of security operations in Jammu and Kashmir. The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has announced a dual strategy: the escalation of Operation All-Out 2.0, aimed at sleeper cells, and the implementation of advanced surveillance in tourist hotspots. There have been past instances of retaliation from the Indian side towards Pakistan when something like this has happened in the last decade, be it Uri or Balakot. Some retaliation can be expected this time, too. Harnessing the global support against terrorism, India will also use its diplomatic capabilities to isolate Pakistan, this time too. Through its long effort, Pakistan was on the FATF’s grey list for over four years, creating strain on its economy. There will be renewed efforts by India to put Pakistan back on the grey list.

The timing of these attacks will have a threefold implication. Locally, the normalcy, which was slowly achieved after the abrogation of Article 370 and the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, will be impacted by increased military movement in the region. Regionally, being a tourist destination and catering to record numbers of tourists in the last three years, Kashmir will be severely impacted economically. Geopolitically, the soft signaling that the new Pakistani administration did was an effort to normalise relations with India, but India did not pay much attention to it. The scope of minuscule bilateral relations has ended with the attacks, also Gen. Munir’s hawkish approach on Kashmir pointed out that the Army does not want any normalization whatsoever. The Indian side is providing a calculated response. Still, a shift in security calculus can be observed in the coming weeks, prompting India to up the ante on its Western borders.

Harsh Pandey is a PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.