U.S. Air Bases in Indo-Pacific Vulnerable to Chinese Missile Attacks, Report Warns

A new report from the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center has raised concerns about the vulnerability of U.S. air bases in the Indo-Pacific region to potential Chinese missile attacks. The report, titled “Cratering Effects: Chinese Missile Threats to US Air Bases in the Indo-Pacific,” was published on December 12, 2024.

The report analyzes the potential impact of Chinese missile strikes on U.S. air bases, specifically targeting runways. According to the findings, these attacks could give China air superiority in the early stages of a conflict by severely disrupting U.S. combat operations.

Using a model that factors in Chinese missile capabilities, U.S. missile defense, and runway repair times, the report concludes that runway attacks on airfields in Japan could ground fighter jets for up to 11.7 days. If tanker jets used for mid-air refueling are also grounded, the disruption could last over a month. In the case of U.S. airfields in Guam and other Pacific Islands, attacks could delay fighter jets for 1.7 days and tankers for four days.

The report warns that such delays could force U.S. bombers to operate from distant bases in Australia, Hawaii, or Alaska, extending flight times and limiting the number of daily sorties.

The authors recommend that the U.S. military invest in inexpensive drones, long-range precision weapons, and improved runway repair capabilities to mitigate the effectiveness of these potential Chinese missile strikes. Additionally, they highlight the importance of bolstering alliances in the region, encouraging more countries to open their airfields to U.S. forces in times of conflict.

While the U.S. Air Force’s Rapid Airfield Damage Recovery (RADR) program aims to quickly restore damaged runways, the report suggests that its current capabilities may not be sufficient to rapidly restore operational readiness in the event of a large-scale conflict.

The Pentagon is already investing billions of dollars in its Pacific Deterrence Initiative, which includes efforts to upgrade airfields and improve air and missile defense systems to counter Chinese threats. This initiative also covers investments in airfields across the second island chain, including Tinian, Guam, Saipan, and Palau, and provides for the training of pilots to operate in these areas.

As tensions continue to rise in the Indo-Pacific, experts stress the need for the U.S. military to adapt its strategies to address these growing missile threats from China.