UN projects world’s population to peak within this century

The United Nations released a report on Thursday forecasting a peak in global population within this century. According to the World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results, the world’s population is expected to reach approximately 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s, before stabilizing around 10.2 billion by the end of the century. This projection marks a 6 percent decrease, amounting to 700 million fewer people than previously estimated a decade ago.

Li Junhua, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, highlighted significant demographic shifts, noting, “The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years.” Factors contributing to the earlier and lower peak include declining fertility rates in major countries. Globally, women now have approximately one child fewer on average compared to around 1990.

The report underscores a global trend of declining fertility rates, with more than half of all countries having birth rates below replacement level. Concerningly, nearly a fifth of all countries report “ultra-low” fertility rates, indicative of fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime. Challenges persist, particularly in low-income nations where early pregnancies remain prevalent. In 2024 alone, 4.7 million babies were born to mothers under 18 years old, with 340,000 born to girls under 15, posing significant health risks.

Investing in education, especially for girls, and delaying marriage and childbirth in countries with early onset have been highlighted as critical interventions. These efforts not only promote women’s health and educational attainment but also contribute to sustainable development goals by curbing population growth.

Over the past three decades, global mortality rates have declined while life expectancy has risen. Following a brief decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy rebounded to 73.3 years in 2024, up from 70.9 years. By the late 2050s, more than half of global deaths are expected to occur at age 80 or older, a significant increase from just 17 percent in 1995.

Looking ahead, demographic projections suggest that by the late 2070s, the number of individuals aged 65 and older will surpass the number of children under 18 globally. By the mid-2030s, the number of people aged 80 and older will outnumber infants under age 1. Even in countries with youthful populations, the proportion of elderly citizens is projected to rise significantly over the next three decades.

The report concludes that while slower population growth may alleviate some environmental pressures, sustainable development efforts must continue to address individual consumption impacts. Ensuring inclusive growth and support for aging populations remain critical for future global stability and well-being.