Oli Confronts Political Turmoil: Internal Rift, Social Media Backlash, and Strained Ties with India

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is grappling with growing internal and external pressures as the dynamics within the CPN-UML shift. The most pressing challenge comes from former President Bidya Devi Bhandari, whose increasing political activity signals an imminent return to the party. Bhandari, once seen as waiting for the right moment to re-enter active politics, appears to be accelerating her efforts. This has led to dissatisfaction among Oli’s close allies, who now openly express concerns that the ‘former president factor’ is reshaping UML’s power structure. Some even suggest that Oli, who has long dominated the party without opposition, is now on the defensive.

Since the departure of Madhav Kumar Nepal, Oli has maintained control over UML with little internal resistance. However, his declining popularity and the absence of strong support within the party are becoming evident. The Thapa-Baskota-Dhakal faction, which has been active for some time, is strategizing to position Bhandari as a key contender at the 11th General Convention to challenge Oli’s leadership. Fully aware of this shifting power balance, Oli is countering with a preemptive strategy—pushing for an early general convention while still holding office to secure another term as UML chair. To facilitate this, he had the age limit of 70 years removed from the party statute over a year ago and has already begun restructuring party roles in his favor. Despite these moves, he recognizes that Bhandari’s return could destabilize his leadership, prompting him to take a dual approach of persuasion and resistance.

To prevent Bhandari’s return to active politics, Oli reportedly met with her privately in Bhangal, a meeting that took place abruptly after he left a secretariat meeting without informing other members. Sources indicate that during their one-on-one discussion, Oli urged Bhandari to refrain from re-entering politics. However, insiders suggest that no concrete agreement was reached. While Bhandari did not explicitly reject Oli’s request, her response, hinting at further consultations, leaves room for speculation. When asked about Bhandari’s potential candidacy for UML chair, party leaders maintain that she is making internal preparations but will make a final decision at an appropriate time. Supporters argue that her leadership is necessary to counter the individualistic trend within UML and reinstate the party’s ideological foundations.

In a recent discussion with his close confidants, Oli identified three key challenges that he expects support in addressing. The first and most significant is Bhandari’s potential political comeback, which could threaten his stronghold on the party. The second challenge is the relentless criticism he faces on social media, which he believes is part of a broader campaign to undermine his government. Expressing frustration, he remarked, “If you look at social media, it’s full of nothing but abuse. It makes me sad all day.”

The third major concern for Oli is India’s continued reluctance to invite him for an official visit. Since taking office six months ago, he has expressed a strong desire to visit Delhi, yet no invitation has been extended. Efforts to secure a visit through Foreign Minister Arju Rana Deuba and former Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali have also yielded no results. While Arju was once received warmly in Delhi, her subsequent visit was met with complete indifference, a shift widely attributed to Nepal’s involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Feeling increasingly sidelined by India, Oli has reportedly voiced his frustration to close aides, stating, “They used to meet me every few days. Since I became Prime Minister, there has been no meeting, no conversation. I sent people there, but there was no response. Had they invited me, I would have gone to India first. Since they didn’t, I went to China instead.”

With rising political uncertainty within UML, public dissatisfaction, and strained diplomatic ties, Oli now faces a complex battle on multiple fronts—one that could define the course of his leadership.