Will Gandaki CM Pandey Survive Today’s Floor Test?

Today marks a crucial moment in the political landscape of Gandaki Province as Chief Minister Surendra Raj Pandey faces a decisive floor test amid swirling uncertainties about his political future. The Nepali Congress parliamentary party leader, Pandey, assumed office on May 29 in the wake of a landmark Supreme Court ruling, becoming the chief minister for the second time in less than two months. However, his tenure now hangs in the balance as he braces for a test of confidence in the provincial assembly.

Pandey, cognizant of the fragility of his position, has opted to undergo the floor test sooner rather than later. Scheduled for Monday, this strategic move is aimed at fortifying his position before presenting the budget for the upcoming fiscal year. With 27 members, the Nepali Congress holds the largest share in the 60-member assembly but falls short of the magic number of 31 needed for a clear mandate. To bridge this gap, the party is banking on the support of two members from the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), namely Rajiv Gurung and Phanindra Devkota, the latter being a Nepal Samajbadi Party lawmaker who contested the 2022 election under the Maoist Centre’s symbol.

Amid intense lobbying efforts, the Congress expresses confidence in securing the necessary backing. Ashok Kumar Shrestha, a Congress assembly member, asserts optimism, citing the positive signals from the RPP and Gurung’s track record of alliance-building. Although Devkota’s allegiance remains uncertain, there are indications of potential support.

The voting, slated for after 3 pm, holds the fate of Pandey’s administration in the balance. While the RPP members in Kathmandu consult their party leadership, they affirm their readiness to back the trust motion, provided the Congress secures Devkota’s support. NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba has personally intervened, urging party unity in support of Pandey’s leadership.

Devkota, pivotal in this political equation, emphasizes the imperative of stability for the province, cautioning against the perils of premature elections. As he deliberates his stance, the specter of party discipline looms large. Despite his claim of allegiance to the Nepal Samajbadi Party, the Maoist Centre insists on his compliance with party directives.

The ramifications of today’s proceedings extend beyond Gandaki Province. A failure in the floor test would trigger a cascade of constitutional provisions, with Province Head Dilliraj Bhatta initiating the formation of a new government. Any member commanding the majority support would ascend to the chief ministerial role, failing which, snap polls loom on the horizon.

This high-stakes political drama unfolds against a backdrop of previous tumultuous transitions of power within the province. Pandey’s ascendancy in 2023, followed by Adhikari’s short-lived tenure, underscores the volatile nature of provincial politics. Legal challenges and judicial interventions have further exacerbated the instability, underscoring the need for enduring solutions.