China’s Cunning Strategy and Nepal’s BRI Gamble

Nepal’s decision to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised more eyebrows than applause. With Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli signing the BRI framework during his recent visit to China, the move has sparked debates over transparency, sovereignty, and what lies behind Beijing’s carefully crafted promises.

China, a nation governed by the iron grip of the Communist Party, has built a global reputation as both a manufacturing powerhouse and a geopolitical chess master. Its foreign policies, often cloaked in the guise of mutual development, carry an unmistakable undertone of strategic encirclement. India, China’s immediate neighbor and rival, has felt the weight of this strategy—whether through trade maneuvers or military posturing.

Yet, as India grapples with balancing trade and territorial concerns, Nepal has thrown itself headlong into Beijing’s ambitious BRI, effectively aligning with a country whose modus operandi is far from transparent.

BRI: A Blessing or a Trap?

While China pitches the BRI as a beacon of development, the program’s history in countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka paints a less rosy picture. Projects under the BRI have been criticized for saddling host nations with unsustainable debt and undermining sovereignty.

Nepal, fresh from signing the framework, is left grappling with unanswered questions: What exactly is in the agreement? Why is the framework cloaked in secrecy? And most importantly, is Nepal prepared for the potential pitfalls of China’s “aid”?

China’s standard playbook for BRI projects involves importing labor, materials, and even machinery from within its borders, leaving host countries with little to no economic gains. If the experiences of other nations serve as a precedent, Nepal could be walking into a web of debt, opaque contracts, and compromised autonomy.

Oli’s Calculated Gamble

Prime Minister Oli’s visit to China was notable not just for the agreements signed but also for the air of mystery surrounding them. The decision to align Nepal so closely with China, without public disclosure of the terms, risks igniting skepticism both domestically and internationally.

One could argue that Oli’s timing is impeccable. Signing deals behind closed doors and framing them as steps toward development gives his administration a narrative of progress. Yet, as history has shown, it’s the details hidden in the fine print that often tell the real story.

A Wait-and-Watch Game

For now, the people of Nepal are left with little choice but to wait for clarity. Will the government disclose the full contents of the BRI agreement? Or will this be another case of opaque diplomacy, where citizens are left to deal with the fallout of secretive deals years down the line?

China’s track record in Nepal isn’t exactly spotless. Projects like the Kathmandu Ring Road expansion and the Narayanghat-Butwal road construction have been marred by delays, quality concerns, and a lack of transparency. If these are harbingers of what’s to come under the BRI, Nepal could find itself in an even deeper quagmire.

The Illusion of Sovereignty

Nepal prides itself on its sovereignty, yet its decisions often seem influenced by external powers. Whether it’s aligning with China, cooperating with India, or maintaining ties with Western nations, Nepal’s balancing act is becoming increasingly precarious.

As the dust settles on Oli’s visit, one thing is clear: the BRI agreement isn’t just about infrastructure; it’s about influence. The question is, will Nepal emerge as a partner in mutual growth—or a pawn in China’s grand strategy?

For now, we can only wait. But as we applaud or criticize, let’s remember: the claps may echo for now, but the true impact of Nepal’s BRI gamble will resonate for years to come.

#Thokotali

(Thokotali is an editorial trademark of epardafas; a satirical and poignant presentation of news, views and analysis.)