Is South Africa preparing to arrest Vladimir Putin next month?

As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares for his upcoming visit to South Africa for the highly anticipated BRICS summit in August, speculation is intensifying regarding the potential arrest of Putin on South African soil. While the scenario remains speculative, it has garnered attention and raised questions about the diplomatic implications and the potential consequences of such a move.

The conjecture revolves around the fact that as Putin leaves Russian territory, he could potentially become subject to an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant. South Africa, being a signatory to the ICC, has previously faced controversy over its refusal to fulfill similar obligations. In 2015, the country allowed safe passage to Sudan’s then-President Omar al-Bashir, who was wanted for war crimes, sparking international debate.

The conjectural situation has led to the country’s largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, taking the matter to court in an attempt to compel authorities to arrest Putin upon his arrival in South Africa. The opposition argues that the potential arrest aligns with South Africa’s international obligations and highlights the importance of upholding justice and accountability.

However, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, in a court affidavit, expressed concerns over the implications of such a move, emphasizing that it could potentially jeopardize national security. Ramaphosa acknowledged the complications of executing a request to arrest and surrender a sitting president, particularly in light of Russia’s strong stance. Russia has made it clear that the arrest of its president would be perceived as a declaration of war, creating a significant risk of escalating tensions.

President Ramaphosa further highlighted South Africa’s ongoing diplomatic efforts with Russia and Ukraine, indicating that the nation is actively engaged in discussions aimed at resolving conflicts and seeking an end to the war. Arresting Putin during his visit, according to Ramaphosa, could prove counterproductive to these diplomatic efforts and hinder progress towards achieving peaceful resolutions.

Cyril Ramaphosa also stated in his affidavit that he had been engaging in consultations with the leaders of each BRICS country regarding the matter.

In the preceding month, the President of South Africa participated alongside several African leaders in meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, Ukraine, and subsequently with Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg, Russia. The objective of these meetings was to deliberate on a viable approach to bringing an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.