Is the Ruling Alliance on the Brink of Dissolution in Nepal?

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ has begun to take an aggressive stance against the ruling party Nepali Congress. Prime Minister Dahal has become angry by the incident where he believes the Congress targeted a candidate of his party in the Koshi province during the National Assembly elections held on Magh 11.

He has publicly stated that the alliance with the Nepali Congress is not advantageous for him. During the party’s central committee meeting, while providing an analysis of the national and international situation, he expressed his dissatisfaction with cooperating with the Congress.

Some individuals have also speculated that Prachanda may switch alliances in the near future. Prachanda’s briefing also indicated that the Nepali Congress has betrayed their alliance and that it is not beneficial. However, due to unresolved issues regarding the peace process, breaking the cooperation and forming another alliance is currently not feasible.

Nevertheless, many leaders within the Maoists, including Barshman Pun and others, are advocating for breaking the alliance with the Congress. Furthermore, there is a push for unity among the communists, including the UML. Although Prime Minister Dahal’s stance towards the Congress appears aggressive, he seems to be more cooperative towards the main opposition party CPN (UML).

He has also shown gentleness towards the fourth-largest party in Parliament, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). There are discussions underway suggesting that the Maoists have made preparations to dissolve the alliance with the Congress and form a new one, potentially including the UML, in anticipation of the forthcoming election for the Chairperson of the National Assembly.

Contrary to the agreement reached within the alliance, the Maoists have claimed the chairmanship of the National Assembly. It is understood that UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli has also requested Dahal not to give up the chairmanship.

Before the National Assembly election, Krishna Prasad Sitaula of the Nepali Congress was chosen by the alliance to serve as the Chairperson of the National Assembly. He contested and emerged victorious, securing his position as a member of the National Assembly.

Following Sitaula’s electoral success, the senior leaders of the Nepali Congress extended their congratulations, envisioning him as the future Chairperson of the National Assembly. However, Prachanda, the Chairman of the Maoist Center and concurrently the Prime Minister, has firmly stated that he will not concede the position of National Assembly Chairperson to the Maoists under any circumstances.

He used to voice this position during party committee meetings. It is also estimated that the alliance between the Nepali Congress and the Maoists may be faltering due to the claim for the Chairmanship of the National Assembly. UML Chairman Oli is in favor of breaking up this alliance at any cost. Meanwhile, there are ongoing meetings between Prime Minister Dahal and UML Chairman Oli. Although it is stated that the meeting was held to finalize the TRC, it is understood that the discussion between the two leaders is aimed at power and cooperation.

When Oli forms a new alliance, he will include the Rajendra Lingden-led RPP and the Rabi Lamichhane-led RSP. That’s why Prime Minister Prachanda has started to be soft towards the RSP. Just yesterday, the leaders of the RSP met with Prime Minister Dahal. It is said that the meeting was to explain the report prepared by the RSP to solve the cooperative problem, but political issues were also discussed between Dahal and Lamichhane.

It should not be surprising if the current ruling alliance breaks up and a new alliance is formed with the UML-Maoist in the face of the election of the Chairperson of the National Assembly to be held on Falgun 29. After Prachanda publicly expressed that the alliance with the Congress is not beneficial, the leaders of the Congress are also angry with the Maoists.

Nepali Congress leader Shekhar Koirala has publicly replied to Prachanda, asking who stopped him from breaking the cooperation with Congress. He has also warned Prachanda not to threaten his party President, Sher Bahadur Deuba, in this way.

A leader close to Deuba, Ramesh Lekhak, has also objected to Prachanda’s statement.