China Grapples with Looming Unemployment Crisis and Soaring Hunger Rates

In a startling revelation, a Chinese economist has shed light on the potentially catastrophic employment situation in China, following the cessation of youth unemployment rate releases in August. The grim analysis suggests that up to 120 million people in the country could be facing unemployment-induced starvation. The economist’s findings are rooted in meticulous scrutiny of official data, revealing a deeper crisis than what official figures indicate.

Two Classes Divide China’s Population: Urban vs. Rural

China’s unique household registration system, known as “hukou,” categorizes individuals into either urban or rural populations. This classification, in place since the inception of the Chinese Communist Party, restricts free movement, shaping all official population and employment-related data into urban and rural categories.

Unreliable Urban Unemployment Statistics

The official “urban surveyed unemployment rate” of 5.1% is deemed highly unreliable, relying on biased surveys conducted among urban and rural households, including dormitories and shacks. Moreover, the National Bureau of Statistics considers working just one hour per week as employment, contributing to the dubious accuracy of the figures.

Migrant Workers Sustain Rural China

A staggering 291 million people in rural China rely entirely on the income sent by migrant workers in cities, highlighting the interdependence between urban and rural populations. The cost of living and agricultural limitations mean that the land can only support about 200 million people, leaving 291 million vulnerable to the economic fate of their urban counterparts.

Urban Unemployment: A Closer Look

Calculating the urban unemployment rate independently reveals a startling reality. The officially reported 5.1% surveyed unemployment rate fails to capture the full scope of the crisis. Factoring in “flexible employment,” including self-employed individuals, pushes the unemployment rate to a concerning 11.2%. The largest group in this category is live streamers, with an alarming 130 million individuals engaged in this precarious form of work.

Potential Catastrophe in 2024

The economist’s projections for 2024 paint a dire picture, suggesting a potential 10% decrease in employment. If realized, this would result in 60 million rural residents and 66 million urban residents facing starvation, totaling 126 million people. The economic downturn, coupled with existing problems such as local debt, could exacerbate the situation, posing a grave threat to China’s social fabric.

Global Ramifications

The potential fallout from China’s unemployment crisis extends beyond its borders. With the current fiscal constraints of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), providing relief for 126 million people seems improbable. This crisis could also have geopolitical implications, as suggested by President Xi Jinping’s unexpected statements during visits to the United States, hinting at internal pressures from economic downturns.

Conclusion

As China grapples with the impending surge in unemployment and the prospect of 120 million people facing starvation, the world watches with concern. The global impact of such a crisis could reshape geopolitical dynamics, adding urgency to finding sustainable solutions for the unprecedented challenges ahead. The CCP’s response to this looming crisis will undoubtedly shape not only China’s future but also its standing on the world stage.