Geopolitical Challenges for the Next U.S. President: Navigating the China-Russia Alliance and Emerging “Axis”

The next U.S. president will likely face mounting challenges as China and Russia deepen their partnership and engage with other states that openly oppose the American-led global order. The growing alliance, which some experts refer to as a new “axis of autocrats” or “axis of chaos,” is setting the stage for a more turbulent geopolitical landscape. This shift requires the U.S. to simultaneously counterbalance two nuclear-armed powers with complex and potentially converging interests that differ sharply from Washington’s.

A “No Limit” Partnership: China and Russia’s Vision of a New World Order

In May, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly reaffirmed their commitment to a “no limit” partnership aimed at creating a multipolar world order, one that challenges the post-World War II structure where the U.S. has long held superpower status. This vision is being translated into action across multiple fronts, including economic and military cooperation, as well as diplomatic alignment against the West.

China’s expanding nuclear capabilities have only added to the complexity. The White House has expressed concern over the unprecedented task of having to deter two nuclear-capable rivals by the 2030s. China’s significant investments in nuclear expansion, once minimal, now pose a formidable challenge for the U.S., as it can no longer rely on the deterrent framework that has shaped its strategy since the Cold War.

The U.S. Election and the “China-Russia Axis”

The upcoming presidential election will have considerable implications for how the U.S. handles the emerging alliance. However, analysts suggest that the overarching U.S. policy on China and Russia may remain largely consistent, regardless of which candidate takes office. The main differences between candidates will likely be in their approach and tactics.

China Policy: Continuity and Divergence Between Candidates

Over the past two U.S. administrations, there has been considerable continuity in America’s stance toward China. President Joe Biden has upheld his predecessor’s tariffs, measures to control strategic goods, and efforts to diversify U.S. supply chains away from China. Biden has also emphasized limiting the inflow of fentanyl from China as part of his administration’s policies on national security and public health. Notably, Biden has avoided Cold War terminology and insisted he does not seek to “contain” China, but his administration’s actions indicate otherwise.

Vice President Kamala Harris, running as the Democratic nominee, has pledged that the U.S. will “beat China in the competition for the 21st century.” She has emphasized “de-risking” over “decoupling” U.S.-China economic ties—signaling a willingness to engage with China economically but with caution. Although her experience in foreign relations is limited compared to Biden’s, Harris has maintained a stance of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan, contrasting Biden’s statement that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if Beijing uses force.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has indicated he would pursue a more assertive stance. Trump’s campaign platform includes stripping China of its permanent normal trade relations status, which would remove key trade benefits China currently enjoys. His “America First” approach would likely lead to more aggressive tariffs and tighter restrictions on Chinese investments and products in the U.S.

Experts differ on which candidate Beijing might prefer, with some suggesting that China could favor Harris, whom they perceive as less experienced, while others believe Trump’s more transactional approach leaves room for potential negotiations.

Russia Policy: Divergent Tactics Toward an Intractable Conflict

The U.S. stance toward Russia also reflects bipartisan concerns but significant tactical differences. Russia remains sanctioned and isolated by the U.S. and its allies, largely due to its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The Democratic and Republican candidates differ sharply on how they would address the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump has stated that he could end the conflict quickly, signaling his intention to broker a peace agreement. Trump’s strategy would likely entail a demilitarized zone within the territory that Russia has occupied and a moratorium on Ukraine joining NATO, a contentious point for Moscow.

Harris, on the other hand, has strongly opposed any form of concessions to Russia. During a September conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Harris reaffirmed that proposals for Ukraine to cede land or relinquish alliances are, in her words, “proposals for surrender.” This stance underscores a commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty and continued resistance against Russia’s influence.

Analysts like Thomas Graham of the Council on Foreign Relations believe that Moscow holds a negative view of both candidates, as the Kremlin perceives a longstanding anti-Russia bias within the U.S. political establishment. Kremlin officials reportedly believe this attitude will persist, regardless of which party is in power, indicating that Russia does not expect any significant warming of relations with the U.S. in the near term.

China and Russia’s Evolving Partnership and the Economic Alliance

Economic interdependence has become a cornerstone of the China-Russia partnership. Russia’s economy, particularly its energy sector, has become increasingly reliant on Chinese markets as European nations have distanced themselves following the Ukraine invasion. By 2023, China accounted for one-third of Russia’s foreign trade, and Chinese companies are actively stepping in to fill gaps left by Western businesses in Russia. This mutual reliance has raised concerns among U.S. policymakers, who worry about the potential ramifications if these economic ties strengthen further.

In addition, reports indicate that Chinese companies may be aiding Russia’s war efforts through the sale of critical weapons components, further complicating international relations. Recently, the U.S. Commerce Department imposed sanctions on Chinese entities that have allegedly collaborated with Russian firms in developing advanced weapons systems.

Despite these shared interests, analysts note that the alliance has limits. China’s growing economic and technological strength places it in a dominant position relative to Russia, creating an imbalance that may affect the durability of the alliance. Furthermore, North Korea’s closer relationship with Russia, alongside China’s continued dependence on Western markets, presents potential cracks in their partnership.

Implications for U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific and Beyond

With its eye on the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. will also need to consider how its responses in Europe could influence Beijing’s actions toward Taiwan. While experts acknowledge that a Russian victory in Ukraine could embolden China, they also note significant differences between the Ukraine and Taiwan situations. Taiwan’s geographical isolation makes a direct invasion from mainland China a far more difficult undertaking, with complex logistical and military challenges that could deter Beijing.

As the next U.S. president takes office, they will be faced with the delicate task of containing a “new axis” while managing domestic priorities. Their approach will be scrutinized closely by both allies and adversaries worldwide. Whether through a stance of strategic competition, economic isolation, or diplomatic engagement, the choices made in Washington will undoubtedly shape the future of this new, multipolar world order.